Gilgit-Baltistan: A Key For India Along Emerging Asian Axis

 

The recent 'Wuhan virus' drastically cut down the speed of economy but it accelerated the pace of changes in geopolitics around the world. There are several media reports which indicate that Turkey and Pakistan are collaborating to train militia so that they can fight in Kashmir like 'Nagorno-Karabakh'. Some people were surprised with the move but it was expected because of recent changes in policies of United State of America towards Turkey, Iran and Pakistan respectively. Hence, china joined hand with Russia so that they can connect the dot from turkey to china to make this grand ASIAN AXIS which includes Iran, Pakistan too. In these circumstances Gilgit-Baltistan is going to become trump card for India because of following reasons:

First, its location provides us access not only to Afghanistan but also to central Asia via Tajikistan by land for which we had invested in Chabahar port in Iran. This will reduce our dependence on Iran as far as connectivity issue is concerned and provide more leverage in bilateral talks with Iran. Second, it not only separates china from Pakistan just like Siachen but also provides us a route to encircle china from Afghanistan to Mongolia. If it becomes reality then we will be able to turn table on Chinese not only by sea route but also via land route. Also, security and vigilance of such a long border will demand more human and technological resources which will become a huge task amid ageing population of china. Third, it will break the physical access (via Pakistan) among Asian axis countries and these country’s plan to use china against India can be checkmate. Fourth, china also want an alternative against ‘Malacca dilemma’ and more control over energy resources through CPEC for its energy requirements. In this context we will have upper hand if we will have control on this region. Fifth, it brings unpredictability in our response. Enemies who are indulging in act of terror with certainty that India will not act and they will have control over whole region like a free ride will come to an end.  

It is true that task is difficult but it must not stop our will, daunt our determination and put check on our option to become great power. We had lost so much time and opportunities because of our dogmas but in 21^st century we must avoid it again because of following things. First, we are in a state of now or never, courtesy to our demographic dividend, growing economy, professional military and innovative scientific community with stable political situation at central level. Second, Gilgit-Baltistan is our land as far as legal issue is concerned. Third, we are not just witnessing a rise of another super power at our doorstep but a rise of ruthless and hegemonic superpower, as Vikram Sood (former RAW chief) pointed out in his book 'THE ULTIMATE GOAL'. Fourth, the kind of diplomatic support we have in 21^st century. We must capitalize it to sort out our prolonged issues and new challenges. Fifth, Pakistan has lost its credibility at international forum and also in a pretty grim situation due to domestic strife just like we were in 1990. Sixth, if we don’t do it then Chinese will do it using CPEC as they already began to cease land from Pakistan in Baluchistan. Also china is under huge pressure due to its stand in south-china sea and India’s military posture in Ladakh. So to prevent land grab in Gilgit-Baltistan we must do preemptive strike either in covert or overt form. Seventh, last but not the least, synergy between political, diplomatic and military leadership is quite phenomenal and based on realism. It makes a huge difference when it comes to make a bold decision like to have physical dominance over Gilgit-Baltistan region.

Hence apart from seeing URI and BALAKOT strike as a punitive action against enemy nation we must also see it as a recce mission for the future operations in Gilgit-Baltistan. We are also doing a great thing by building deep strategic relationship with Arab peninsula and other I.O.R. region countries especially right from Indonesia, Myanmar to Seychelles, modernizing our armed forces and building infrastructure in border areas of India. But we need to focus on power of narrative too. As we know that how did USA build a narrative before military strike in Iraq and Afghanistan to justify its actions. Being a nation of around 404 t.v. channels, 99000 publications, 13761 registered newspaper and a more curious society about world affairs than USA and Britain , it is not only important for us to tell our story in our way to our citizen but also to a world which is insular and controls the narrative to further its interest using soft and hard power. Second, we have to put our dogmas aside. We have to understand that different situation demands different solutions. We can’t expect same result in a completely different and more complex world with same strategy just like we couldn’t have same answers for different questions. If both Iran and Russia are ready to explore china then why shouldn’t we explore Gilgit-Baltistan, our own region. Third, we need to align our all India services, state services, diplomacy and society in a strategized and militarized form along with strategized military so that we should not afraid of taking bold decision in long run.

Thus, in this world where everything became more transactional, complex, realistic and old world order is churning, we can’t except that our old fashion diplomacy will produce same result as it were. Instead of putting energy to manage things we should discuss and evolve our options so that we can craft the things. In that line Gilgit-Baltistan gives us leverage which we want and world will consider India as a player who can solve the problem rather than manage the problem.